expected at 1% growth over one year

expected at 1% growth over one year

Covid-19 vaccination campaign at government health center during Covid-19 emergency in Calcutta, India, May 3, 2021. Pfizer in talks with India on expedited approval of Covid-19 vaccine according to an Indian media report.

Indranil Aditya | NurPhoto | Getty Images

India’s economy is expected to improve in the three months that ended in March, but analysts have lowered growth expectations for the current quarter that ends in June.

It comes as India continues to grapple with a devastating second wave of the coronavirus outbreak.

Gross domestic product for the period January to March – India’s fourth fiscal quarter – is due around noon GMT on Monday. The Indian fiscal year begins in April and ends in March of the following year.

Reuters reported that the economists polled had a median forecast for annual growth of 1% for the March quarter – down from 0.4% in the previous quarter. However, economists are less optimistic about the current quarter ending in June.

We need to achieve a critical vaccination level, a vaccination level, in India to stabilize the epidemic – and that is essential for economic growth.

The median growth forecast for the three months from April to June is 21.6%, down from an earlier estimate of 23%, Reuters reported. For the full year 2022, the median forecast is down from a previous estimate of 10.4% growth to an expansion of 9.8%.

India is the second most infected country in the world behind the United States. It has reported over 28 million cases and over 329,000 deaths.

Expected growth is a “ cold comfort ” for India

Eyes on the notes

Neumann added that based on trends seen last year, India’s economy tends to rebound quickly once virus cases peak. He said he expects the situation to improve by the end of the September quarter.

According to Kaushik Das, chief economist for India and South Asia at Deutsche Bank, a robust vaccination campaign may also reduce the risks of a possible downgrade in India’s sovereign ratings, which has become a concern. among investors.

Rating agencies said they see no imminent change to sovereign ratings of India at this time. They expect the economic fallout from the second wave to be limited to the June quarter and predict that it is unlikely to be as bad as it was last year, when India put in place a multi-month nationwide lockdown.

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